Posted by: RFC Blogger from Bridgend | March 17, 2011

Concentrating on the league!

Now that our FA Cup adventure has come to an end (again) we can concentrate wholeheartedly on the league and getting into a play off position. Having said that according to one of my favourite web sites, (see below link) all but the bottom two teams can mathematically finish in the top six, and all but the bottom four can mathematically get automatic promotion. Mathematically any team from seventh down at the moment can be relegated as well.

http://stats.football365.com/dom/ENG/D1/runin.html

season form recent form change Team Highest Possible Finish Lowest Possible Finish Projected Points
    Season Form Recent Form
       
1 1 Queens Park Rangers 1 16 90.1 91.9
2 2 Norwich City 1 20 81.3 82.2
7 3 +4 Burnley 1 24 72 78
3 4 -1 Swansea City 1 21 78.3 77.4
5 5 Leeds United 1 22 75.4 77.2
4 6 -2 Cardiff City 1 21 76.4 73.7
10 7 +3 Hull City 1 24 67.6 73
13 8 +5 Portsmouth 1 24 62.7 71.7
8 9 +1 Watford 1 24 69.5 70.4
11 10 -1 Leicester City 1 24 67.6 69.4
9 11 -2 Reading 1 24 69 69
6 12 -6 Nottingham Forest 1 22 74.4 67.2

 

We are now in the business end of the season, and on a personal note I will probably not be able to keep this blog up to date, as I also have to complete a piece of work by 6th May which is the day before the last game of the season – for which I already have my ticket! (yippee)

Looking at the stats, the teams making a surge for the play offs are Hull, Portsmouth and Burnley. Reading have a game in hand over most of these teams, but based on recent form, the Royals would finish in 11th position mainly because of teams like these as they have upped their game recently.

Conversely Swansea, Cardiff and Nottingham Forest have all had a dip in performance right when they least needed it. They are all still in the top six, but are having a wobble.

Reading’s season form and recent form are the same, and based on their season form and the maximum points they can get they would finish 9th.

Sad person that I am I have analysed the run-ins for the top 11 teams and Nottingham Forest face 6 of the other teams in the top 11 in their last 10 games.

Nott’m Forest 6
Burnley 5
Watford 5
QPR 4
Swansea 4
Norwich 4
Leeds 4
Leicester 4
Hull 4
Royals 3
Cardiff 2

 

Statistically this pattern of games is probably not unusual – but the top 11 on average play four games against others from within that group. Reading only face 3 and Cardiff 2, although one of those is against QPR, and the second against Burnley on the last day of the season, so that could be a real six pointer!

This really is the business end of the season when six pointers really do happen, and a team’s season can boil up to a crescendo or end on a bit of a whimper. Lets hope its the former for Reading.

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